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Background Papers The Debate on Immigration Demographic developments and economic concerns stand behind the debate now underway in Germany on immigration. Low birthrates and rising life expectancy are producing an aging population. If current demographic trends continue, the number of working-age Germans will decline markedly over the next three decades as the number of retirees grows steadily. Increased immigration is widely seen as one way of helping to maintain a steady labor supply. German business organizations see immigration also as a source of specialized skills and training. If Germany is to be competitive in fields like telecommunications, information services, electronic engineering and biotechnology, the argument goes, it has to draw on an international pool of talent. Against this background, the German government appointed a commission in the summer of 2000 to propose changes in the country's migration policies. The commission is expected to put forward its recommendations in mid-2001. Immigration is a decisive variable in demographic and economic forecasting. The Federal Statistical Bureau reported in 2000, for example, that Germany's population will likely drop from its current level of 82 million residents to somewhere between 65 and 70 million residents by 2050. The bureau's figure of 70 million residents assumes net annual immigration of 200,000 people, and even that influx is not expected to offset an increase in the ratio of retirees to workers paying into the country's pension system. At present, according to the Statistical Bureau, there are 40 retirees for every 100 members of the work force; allowing for net immigration of 200,000 people per year, the Statistical Bureau calculates the ratio will be 75 retirees per 100 workers by 2050. As more Germans head into retirement in coming decades, German employers could find it increasingly difficult to fill job vacancies. The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) figures Germany currently has a total labor pool of 40.6 million people. Taking in 140,000 immigrants annually for the next fifteen years will assure Germany a steady labor supply until 2020 but will not, according to DIW's calculations, be sufficient to offset a rapid decrease in the number of potential workers in the following decades . Assuming that the retirement age is not raised, according to DIW, Germany will need net annual immigration of at least 600,000 people if a sharp drop in the size of the work force is to be averted after 2020.
Literally millions of foreigners have settled in the Federal Republic of Germany over the past four and half decades, but few of them were received as "immigrants" (Einwanderer). "Guest workers" were actively recruited in the 1950s and 1960s to help ease a labor shortage during the boom years of the post-war "economic miracle." Since these "guests" were expected to return home eventually, they were rarely described as "immigrants" - even after many opted to remain in Germany and arranged for their family members to join them there. Nor are most of the more recently arrived of Germany's foreign residents usually referred to as "immigrants." The end of the Cold War, for example, brought a marked increase in the number of ethnic German "resettlers" (Aussiedler) from Eastern Europe and the successor states to the Soviet Union exercising their right under the Federal Republic's constitution to take up residence in Germany. The constitution also guarantees victims of political persecution the right of asylum. Only a small minority of those who apply for political asylum are eventually granted permission to stay in Germany, but it is common for asylum-seekers to remain in the country for a year or longer while their applications are under review. Asylum-seekers and refugees boost Germany's annual migration statistics, but the great majority of them end up staying in the country only temporarily. The largest group of foreigners who settle legally in Germany each year consists of citizens of other European Union member states. Aussiedler, asylum-seekers and EU citizens figure in discussions of Germany's foreign residents in precisely those terms - as Aussiedler, asylum-seekers and EU citizens, not as immigrants. Cross-Border Migration 1999
Source: Federal Statistical Bureau
In much the same way that Germany's foreign residents are generally not called immigrants, the topic of immigration has until recently been subordinated to issues such as the integration of foreigners in German society and reform of the country's laws on citizenship and naturalization. Immigration moved to the center of public debate in early 2000 when the Schröder government announced a special initiative to address a labor shortage in the information technology industry. Industry leaders, pointing to some 75,000 jobs for computer programmers, engineers and other IT specialists that were unfilled for want of qualified personnel, urged the government to establish a form of work permit comparable to the U.S. Green Card for foreign professionals. The government responded with a program that will allow up to 20,000 foreign IT specialists to work in Germany for up to five years. Other industries thereupon announced they, too, would like to draw on foreign talent to help maintain their international competitiveness. With the major political parties loosely in agreement that targeted immigration to serve Germany's economic needs would be desirable, the Schröder government appointed an independent commission in the summer of 2000 to draw up a list of specific recommendations.
Immigration is a sensitive issue in most of the leading industrialized nations, and Germany is no exception. Germany's major political parties are in loose agreement that some increase in immigration is needed for economic ends. The debate that has followed since the appointment of the independent immigration commission has largely by-passed the main issues the commission is to address - how far immigration should be increased, what criteria should be established. The debate now underway has focused rather on whether changes in immigration policy should be coupled with a review of asylum policy and what should be expected of foreigners who opt to live in Germany. A rapid increase in the numbers of individuals seeking asylum in the early part of the 1990s prompted German lawmakers to impose new criteria and procedures for considering asylum applications in 1993. Some prominent members of the Christian Democratic Union argue further revisions in Germany's asylum policies are needed and that the revisions should take account of increased economic migration. In late 1999, the CDU's Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, proposed lifting the constitutional guarantee of asylum to victims of political persecution entirely. The governing SPD-Green coalition has come out against linking asylum and migration policy and any curtailment on the promise of asylum given in the Federal Republic's constitution. The integration of foreigners within German society has been the subject of recurring debate over the years - a debate that is as much about the Germans' visions of themselves as about the foreigners who make their homes in Germany. Saying that foreigners who opt to live in Germany should adapt to German ways is easy; finding agreement among Germans on precisely what German ways might be or which German ways foreigners need to adopt to participate fully in German life is rather more difficult. The leader of the joint CDU-CSU parliamentary caucus drew both applause and criticism, for example, when he suggested in late 1999 that resident aliens and immigrants should adhere to a German "Leitkultur." The term can be translated as "leading culture" or "guiding culture," and in German, as in English, its meaning is open to interpretation. Critics contend the term bespeaks an arrogance bordering on xenophobic intolerance. Defenders counter that it is merely a shorthand expression for something that is actually a matter of course. The European Dimension Immigration falls under national jurisdiction within the European Union, but as Germany's migration figures make clear, EU law and policy have considerable bearing on the issue. The EU recently adopted a series of reform measures so that it can begin accepting new member states as of 2003. With the accession of new members, the number of potential immigrants will grow rapidly. To prevent labor market disruptions - especially in Germany's eastern border regions - Chancellor Gerhard Schröder proposed in December 2000 that a seven-year transition period be imposed on implementation of the EU provisions for the unrestricted movement of workers. A similar transition period, Schröder noted, was enacted when Spain and Portugal joined the then European Community in 1985. The chancellor also noted that Germany will need increased immigration after 2010 on account of demographic trends.
For statistical information on foreigners in Germany and migration, see Quick Facts and the website of the Federal Statitical Office, www.statistik-bund.de (the Statistical Office's website includes material in both German and English). For information in German on foreigners in Germany and immigration-related topics, visit the websites of the Federal Ministry of the Interior (www.bmi.bund.de) and the Federal Ministry for Labor and Social Affairs (www.bma.bund.de). The website of the Institut für Entwicklungsforschung, Wirtschafts- und Sozialplanung (Institute for Development Research, Economic and Social Planning) - www.isoplan.de - has much material in German touching on foreigners and immigration, including the on-line edition of the magazine Ausländer in Deutschland (www.isoplan.de/aid). |
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